Planning Out Your Fantasy Football Draft Strategy

Setting up your pre-draft rankings and strategy around them

Last week I went over the basics for fantasy football, what types of leagues there are, scoring in those leagues and what types of drafts there are. This week I will be going over pre-draft rankings of players and strategy around them.

Depending on what type of league you are doing you might already have some players on your team, but for the sake of the fresh draft where you are looking to build your team from scratch I will go over my top fives at each position, when they should be drafted, and a few players who I think will be sleepers, and a few players who might be drafted too high. After the pre-draft rankings I will go over a few strategies on how to work your draft.

I will start from the top with quarterbacks.

My top five quarterbacks are in this order. Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Matt Ryan. All of these quarterbacks should be drafted in the first round with the exception of Ryan, who should be in most leagues, a very high second-round draft pick.

For sleepers at the quarterback position, there aren’t many, but a guy like Colin Kaepernick could slip into the top five, as well guys who have a high upside like Eli Manning, Cam Newton, Matt Schaub, Matthew Stafford and Michael Vick. With sleepers, there are also guys who are drafted too high. I think Vick goes into this category as well Phillip Rivers, Ben Rothelisberger and Tony Romo. The only reason I put Rothelisberger, Romo and Vick into this category is because they are prone to injury and can really throw a wrench into your season if they get hurt. Rivers is the constant under achiever, he is supposed to have huge years and year after year he disappoints. Maybe this will be his year, but probably not.

My top five running backs are in this order. Adrian Peterson, Arian Foster, Marshawn Lynch, Ray Rice and Jamaal Charles. All of these running backs should be drafted in the first two rounds, with the exception of Charles who should be a second round pick because of history of injuries.

For sleepers at the running back position, a guy like Darren McFadden who has had a history of injuries might fall in the draft and could bank you a solid back if he stays healthy. That also applies to LeSean McCoy, Ahmad Bradshaw, and Steven Jackson. For guys who might get drafted too high McFadden leads the list. He has the home run game, but he gets injured too often. Others who might get drafted too high include Alfred Morris, Doug Martin and Chris Johnson. While Johnson, McCoy and McFadden have faced the injury bug Martin and Morris have not, but don’t have a large enough sample size for me to put them as top five backs, somewhere they both have been getting drafted.

My top five wide receivers are in this order, Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson, Wes Welker, Roddy White and Brandon Marshall. I would be comfortable taking either of the Johnsons, Welker or White in the first round with Marshall being a high second round pick.

For sleepers at wide receiver I look at Danny Amendola, Anquan Bouldin, Larry Fitzgerald and Steve Smith. All of these guys are number one receivers, and are poised to have a big season. For guys who get drafted too high I am looking at Dez Bryant, Victor Cruz, AJ Green and Mike Wallace. For Bryant and Cruz my reasoning comes from the injury bug, either from their own standpoint or their quarterbacks. For Cruz and Green I look at it in terms of being a number one on a team that doesn’t have many other options in the passing game, they should be double covered regularly which makes it harder to make a play, although Green was in this category last year he out preformed his position pre-rankings.

My top five at tight end are in this order. Jimmy Graham, Vernon Davis, Jason Witten, Tony Gonzalez and Owen Daniels. I would only draft Graham in the first round here and that would only be in the case that none of the quarterbacks, receivers or running backs I suggested earlier to draft are available. Davis, and Witten are worthy of a top three round pick with Daniels and Gonzalez in the first six rounds.

For sleepers at tight end I look at Brandon Myers, Dallas Clark and Greg Olson. Myers broke out last year and is with a new team in the Giants this year; people might think that because he is going to a new team he might not get the receptions. I think the opposite will be true and he will becomes Manning’s best friend in the red zone. As for Clark, he is now with the Ravens, and with the departure of Bouldin to the 49ers, I think he is in for a big season similar to what he was averaging with the Colts with Manning at the helm. Olson is the sleeper of all sleepers in the tight end game for me. He has Newton at quarterback, but Newton can’t always find Smith in the end zone and this is where Olson comes into play. He is a big target down low that is worthy of a late round draft pick.

For guys who get drafted too high, Antonio Gates tops the list, along with Jermichael Finley and Zach Miller. Gates who was at one time the best tight end in the game has regressed in the past few seasons, along with his quarterback in Phillip Rivers always disappointing with red zone interceptions and that ugly throwing motion. Finley is at the curse of having an offense that loves to spread the ball around. There are too many hands looking for the rock from Rodgers, stay away from Finley in early rounds. As for Miller, this guy was a top five tight end with the Raiders as he was the only receiver option for a few-years, with Seattle he is one of a few quality receivers and with a solid running game between quarterback Russell Wilson and Lynch, he is unlikely to break 100 catches, or be worth the value of a top five receiver again.

For flex positions, this is up to you, running backs usually earn the most points so they are more valuable, but if you can pair together a receiver quarterback combo that always helps in big games, but can severely hurt in poor outings.

My top five kickers are in this order. Matt Prater, Stephen Gostkowski, Sebastian Janikowski, Phil Dawson and Matt Bryant. You want to take a kicker who will get a lot of chances at extra point kicks. For Janikowski that is not the idea, but that he has an above average leg and will land you some of the bigger kicks, of the 40-50 yard varieties that usually are worth more points. There are no real sleeper kickers, and if anyone drafts a kicker high, well don’t follow suit. A kicker is usually my last pick because they put up the least amount of points.

As for team defense, the top five in this order are. The 49ers, Seahawks, Bears, Broncos and Texans are the best in my opinion.

The best offense is a good defense, and the same can be said for defense, having a good offense makes your defense look better. If your offense controls the clock your defense won’t have to be on the field as long, and that usually means your players are fresh to play. If you can’t grab a top five-defense grab the team who has an easy matchup the first week and then each week look at teams who have good matchups, this works if you don’t have a team defense you want to hold onto. On where to draft a team defense, look at how many points they put up in your league, and what the point differential is between a top five defense and the rest of the league. In my league team defense starts with 20 points a week and goes down from there based on points allowed and yards allowed, with additional points added for fumbles, interceptions and sacks. I like to grab a strong defense that doesn’t allow points, to try and stay as close to 20 every week.

If you run individual defensive players, take linebackers first, my suggestion would be to grab a player like Patrick Willis, Navarro Bowman, James Laurinaitas, Jerod Mayo or Paul Posluszny as your first linebacker and try to go from there. Look at guys who play in the middle of the field and average a lot of tackles. If you want to live dangerous and go for the big points, safeties and lineman aren’t a bad idea, but you could get blanked if they don’t get a sack or interception.

Now that I have gone over the top five at each position I want to go over some strategy.

If you run a double quarterback league my suggestion is to take a quarterback in the first round if you can get a top five guy and then start to fill in your team by the player with the highest value in terms of your team.

If you are running a standard league with one quarterback look at the scoring of your league. If running backs get six points a touchdown and quarterbacks do not, you may want to grab a top tier running back first and then hit the quarterback. If you are in a league where quarterbacks get six points a touchdown, the choice is obvious to take a top tier quarterback first as the average quarterback throws for twice as many touchdowns as running backs. With that being said, a second tier quarterback who scores six points a touchdown might be just as valuable as a top tier running back so go with the running back first as there are less of them available.

As for wide receivers, if you earn six points a touchdown and there are no top tier quarterbacks or running backs available go grab one of the Johnsons with your first pick and work from there. For tight ends I look at it this way, if applicable your tight end should be your fourth or fifth best player in a standard league and your sixth or seventh best player in a double quarterback league. If the receivers available are not as good as the tight ends on the board snatch one up, if they are not as valuable, wait until they become a value pick.

For team defenses and individual players. Depending on your league you may want to wait until you are done drafting all of your offense players, but in some leagues this might not be the best idea. In my league a tackle from an individual defensive player is worth one points, a sack three, with fumbles and interceptions worth five and defensive touchdowns worth six. If you can grab a linebackers who averages 100 tackles a season that is 100 points you can bank on add that onto any sacks, interceptions or fumbles they may cause and you might want to tack a defensive player before you start grabbing your bench offensive players. For team defense, look at the points they score, if they average less than some second and third string offense players wait, if they earn more than a top tier tight end, you may want to grab one of them in the first seven rounds.

As for kickers, check the scoring, but usually they score the least amount of points so draft them last. Unless you want to waste a draft pick.

Check back next week when I cover getting ready for your first week of fantasy football in the new season.